AGP Executive Report

Oil & Sanctions: Trump has suspended new US penalties on Russian energy and major oil buyers, giving India and other importers temporary relief while keeping the threat of tariffs in reserve. The move clears the way for a diesel supply deal with Moscow; Russia has restarted diesel exports. Refining & Industry: Drone attacks have disrupted Russian fuel production: Reuters reports that Ryazan refinery halted one main processing unit, while reports also describe a strike on a major chemical plant in Siberia. Gas Exports: With Gazprom seeking buyers in Africa after losing much of its European market, Moscow is working to redirect gas sales. Industrial Cooperation: RusHydro and Sual Partners have agreed to explore cooperation in aluminum production and processing.

Energy Trade: Washington has waived sanctions and tariffs under the Graham Act just before they were due to take effect, easing pressure on major buyers of Russian oil and gas. The pause is temporary, but follows a US-Russia diesel agreement; Russia says exports have restarted and domestic supply remains sufficient. Rail and Agriculture: Russian Railways Logistics and Kazakhstan’s KazGrain plan to develop rail and multimodal routes for grain and other cargo across Russia, Kazakhstan and CIS markets. Aluminum: RusHydro and Sual Partners have agreed to expand cooperation at the Boguchansky aluminum plant, including production sharing, raw-material supplies and deliveries of up to 150,000 tonnes of finished products. Digital Infrastructure: Ukrainian strikes have damaged three of the five data centers supporting Yandex, disrupting services including payments, navigation and delivery and exposing risks to Russia’s fast-growing digital economy.

Fuel Trade: Moscow says diesel exports are restarting after Washington eased restrictions, with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying domestic supply remains sufficient and exports could reach 3–3.5 million tonnes a month by year-end. But sanctions and payment hurdles remain, and Russia’s seaborne oil-product imports fell 44% in September, with Turkey and Morocco the main suppliers. Energy Infrastructure: A drone strike sparked a fire at an industrial facility in the Surgut region, a major oil and gas hub. Authorities have not identified the site; reports that it was Gazprom’s condensate plant remain unconfirmed. Nuclear Projects: Rosatom is targeting a first self-sustaining chain reaction at Turkey’s Akkuyu plant by late December, though grid connection and power generation would come later. Gas Markets: Russia is pitching gas and energy infrastructure services to African countries as Gazprom seeks buyers to replace lost European demand. LNG: Novatek reported a nearly 5% rise in third-quarter gas output, but Yamal LNG must stop deliveries to EU countries from 2027 under the bloc’s import ban.

Energy & Refining: Ukraine’s renewed strike on the Ryazan refinery ended a brief pause in attacks. Russia says diesel exports are restarting under its deal with Washington, but the IEA warns the global market will remain tight into 2027 and extra Russian supply may bring little relief. Sanctions & Trade: The US extended a waiver allowing Lukoil’s overseas operations to continue through April 2027. Russian petroleum-product shipments from Far Eastern ports reached a four-year high. Industry & Investment: Russia’s oil-and-gas tax revenue is forecast to rise 10% in October to $12 billion despite lower production, while business investment stalled in the third quarter amid falling profits and uncertainty. Agriculture: Putin says Russia has joined the world’s top 20 food suppliers; officials expect this year’s harvest to hold up, with sugar retaining strong export potential.

Energy Outlook: Rystad Energy says global reliance on imported energy could peak by 2034, as geopolitical shocks expose risks to interconnected fuel, food, logistics and manufacturing supply chains. Oil and Refining: Moscow says it could supply up to 3.5 million tonnes of diesel to world markets, including the US, by year-end. The IEA expects little effect on global supply, citing limited Russian refinery capacity; a strike also sparked a fire at the Ryazan refinery. Russia’s oil and gas revenues are forecast to rise 10% year on year in October to $12 billion. Trade Flows: Russian crude shipments to India are expected to hold near 1.8 million barrels a day in October, while imports from Venezuela and Angola grow. Industrial Capacity: Russia says domestic firms now supply more than 84% of its oil and gas equipment, but business investment stalled in the third quarter as profits fell and uncertainty persisted. Coal output is also forecast to edge down this year.

Diesel Trade: Moscow says Russia could sign its first diesel supply contracts with Washington within days, after the US eased sanctions. Analysts doubt the deal will cut fuel prices much, while US lawmakers and European allies press to restore restrictions. Oil Exports: Russian oil exports fell to 6.52 million barrels a day in September, but export revenues rose to $17.67 billion. Digital Infrastructure: A drone strike hit Sberbank’s data center in Balakovo. Users reported outages across banking, telecom and online services, though Sberbank said its systems were operating normally. India Ties: Tatarstan’s trade with India topped $1 billion in the first half of 2026, more than three times last year’s reported total for the same forum announcement.

Digital Infrastructure: Putin called for tighter cybersecurity coordination across Russia’s economy and logistics sector after Ukrainian drones reportedly targeted a Sberbank data center; the bank said its services remained operational. Energy: Moscow is discussing diesel supply contracts with US companies and presents the deal as a boost to refining and budget revenues, though analysts see little chance of meaningful price relief. Russia’s oil and petroleum-product exports slipped to 6.52 million barrels a day in September, while export revenue rose to $17.67 billion. Power Sector: Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said utilities are interested in new protective structures for energy facilities. Industrial Cooperation: Russia and Ethiopia are promoting investment and technology ties in agriculture, while Moscow and ASEAN are exploring cooperation on maritime security and customs.

Diesel Exports: Russia says it could raise diesel exports to 3–3.5 million tonnes a month after partially easing its export ban, following a deal with Washington to supply global markets. Analysts expect little relief for fuel prices, while the arrangement could bring Moscow new export revenue. Industrial Disruptions: A reported drone strike sparked a fire near Balakovo’s steelworks, which has capacity exceeding one million tonnes a year; damage to the plant is unconfirmed. A petroleum export terminal in Rostov-on-Don was still burning for a fourth day after an earlier strike, disrupting a key part of Russia’s fuel logistics.

Fuel Exports: The US temporarily eased sanctions on Russian diesel exports after a Trump-Putin deal, with Moscow promising millions of tonnes for global markets. The supply could do little to ease prices, while bipartisan US lawmakers say the move undermines sanctions. Digital Services: Strikes on three Yandex data centers disrupted taxis, payments, email and retail services in Russia and abroad. Some services have returned, but repairs could take months. Military Industry: The EU added nearly 1,600 Russian people and entities linked to arms production to its sanctions list, targeting the sector’s missile and drone supply chains. Agriculture: Russia’s wheat exports are forecast to fall 17% to 40 million tonnes in 2026–27, as attacks and shipping disruptions complicate grain exports.

Energy & Fuels: Russia partially lifted its diesel export ban, clearing 500,000 tonnes for global markets. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak says exports could rise to 3–3.5 million tonnes a month by year-end. The move follows a US sanctions waiver, while continued Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy sites cast doubt on President Trump’s claimed energy truce. Steel: September rolled-steel output rose 2.6% year on year to 4.7 million tonnes, but production was down 3.3% over the first nine months. Industrial Investment: VTB will provide 1.89 billion rubles to build a 14,000-square-metre light-industrial park in eastern Moscow, aimed at expanding space for small and midsize businesses. Military-Industrial Sector: The EU added nearly 1,600 Russian people and firms to sanctions lists, targeting suppliers linked to missile and drone production.

Fuel and Energy: Washington temporarily eased sanctions to allow Russian diesel exports, with Moscow promising an initial 300,000 tons and larger shipments later. Trump says the deal will curb US fuel prices, but its impact may be limited; lawmakers from both parties argue the move may break US law, while oil prices remain volatile. Sanctions: The EU approved nearly 1,600 new listings tied to Russia’s military-industrial supply chain, including missile, drone and weapons-component makers. Transport and Logistics: Rosatom took full control of freight operator Delo Group, adding container terminals, rail assets and grain-export capacity to its growing transport network. Industrial Disruption: Ukraine says strikes in September hit 12 Russian oil refineries, two petrochemical plants and five defense-industry firms. Separately, attacks on three Yandex data centers disrupted cloud services and other businesses.

Energy Truce: President Donald Trump says Russia and Ukraine agreed to stop attacks on energy infrastructure, but Moscow has not confirmed the deal. Kyiv says it supports a mutual ceasefire while reporting fresh strikes on power plants. Diesel Trade: Trump’s deal would allow Russian diesel exports to the US and global markets, with an initial 300,000 tonnes promised and sanctions temporarily eased. Russia is also loosening diesel export curbs, but Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy sites cloud supply prospects. Sanctions Dispute: Seven US senators from both parties say the imports may violate a 2022 law and urge the administration to reverse course. EU officials warn the deal could bring Moscow more revenue. Oil Markets: Crude prices fell as traders weighed the ceasefire claim and extra fuel supplies, though the truce and deliveries remain uncertain.

Energy Truce: Trump declared an immediate halt to Russian and Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure, but neither side confirmed the deal. Zelensky said Kyiv had not been consulted and would agree only if Moscow also stops its strikes. Russian attacks on Kyiv’s power network caused outages in several districts on Sunday. Diesel Trade: Washington temporarily eased sanctions on Russian fuel under a deal to bring diesel to US and global markets. The move has drawn bipartisan legal objections, while analysts doubt it will deliver lasting price relief. Arctic Shipping: A South Korean container ship completed a trial round trip to Europe via Russia’s Northern Sea Route, cutting one-way sailing time by 10 days compared with the Suez route. The route’s proximity to Russia brings sanctions-related risks for operators.

Diesel Exports: Russia partially lifted its diesel export ban after Donald Trump announced a deal to open US and global markets to Russian fuel. Washington’s temporary sanctions waiver runs through April 2027, but analysts say the added supply may do little to ease prices. Agriculture: Vladimir Putin said Russia’s grain harvest would top 100 million tonnes this year, supporting food security and a strong overall output of meat, milk and eggs. Drone Manufacturing: Ukraine’s Air Force says Russia is spending heavily to produce jet-powered attack drones, whose costly engines add to manufacturing costs as their use increases.

Fuel Trade: Washington temporarily waived sanctions on Russian diesel through April 2027 after Trump said Moscow would supply up to 4.8 million tonnes to US and global markets. Analysts doubt Russia can meet the volumes: Ukrainian drone strikes have hit oil hubs and refineries, and one industry estimate puts refining capacity at about 60%. Sanctions & Markets: The UK and EU say they will maintain pressure on Moscow, warning that fuel revenues support its war effort. The conflicting policies add uncertainty for energy traders. Digital Infrastructure: A drone strike damaged Yandex’s large Kaluga data centre, taking modules offline and exposing risks to Russia’s cloud capacity. Nuclear Industry: Rosatom says it will pursue its legal case against Finland over the cancelled Hanhikivi nuclear plant contract.

Diesel Exports: President Donald Trump says Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel to US and global markets, with further shipments planned. Washington issued a temporary license allowing Russian diesel sales through April 2027, while Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said export restrictions would be lifted ahead of schedule. Analysts doubt the initial shipment will significantly lower prices. Oil Infrastructure: A fire was reported at the Yug Rusi export terminal in Rostov-on-Don after a suspected drone strike; the site handles products from the Novoshakhtinsk refinery. Ukraine also says it struck Russian refineries, including Omsk and Ukhta, as attacks put export infrastructure under pressure. Gas and Agriculture: Gazprom has built record underground gas reserves ahead of winter. Separately, Russian livestock-product exports to Africa rose 30%, while the wheat harvest is expected to be near 2025 levels.